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Risk of labor shortage

 

 

From the beginning of 2021 until now, nearly 13 million people of working age in the country have been affected in terms of employment and income. In particular, from the end of June to the beginning of September, localities recorded that nearly 10% of businesses had to suspend production and business, equivalent to nearly 4 million workers who had to temporarily stop working.

However, in the first eight months of this year, the whole country has 114 thousand newly registered enterprises and re-operated enterprises with a total registered labor force of nearly 600,000 people. With the epidemic situation moving in a positive direction and the vaccination schedule being accelerated, it is forecasted that from now until the end of the year, the demand for labor recruitment will be huge to meet business and production needs.

In fact, industrial zones and clusters in the southern provinces and cities are facing the concern of labor shortage to meet the year-end order schedule. However, the epidemic and prolonged social distancing have forced workers to find other jobs, or leave industrial zones to return to their hometowns to avoid the epidemic, leaving a "vacancy" in many businesses.

According to the Employment Department (Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs), after the epidemic is under control, there will be a shortage of labor in enterprises processing leather, footwear, textiles, and electronic components assembling... is very large.

Labor experts worry that the number of workers returning home to return to work is only about 60-70%, which will create a big paradox in terms of labor supply and demand. Large cities with many industrial and export processing zones will face a serious problem of labor shortage to restore production. Meanwhile, in some localities, workers returned with surplus of human resources. For example, in the last months of the year, the labor market of Binh Duong province lacks at least 40,000 workers; Ho Chi Minh City needs about 147 thousand workers...

Although businesses have implemented many policies to retain employees such as: attractive salaries and allowances; support for employees who temporarily suspend contracts, take unpaid leave, stop work, terminate contracts... but are also exhausted after a long time of production and business stagnation. To mobilize enough workers to return to work to restore production, enterprises must rely on the policies of the State.

Many experts predict that the labor force cannot return in the short term. During that period, businesses that are already weak will reduce their productivity, and the risk of supply chain disruption will be on a national or even global scale. A labor crisis is likely to occur when there is a surplus and a shortage.

The Employment Department also said that, in addition to prioritizing vaccination for workers to create a good mentality and help them feel secure to stay at work, it is necessary to have more policies to directly support businesses and employees such as reducing interest rates. rate, fee, electricity, water, petrol...

Obviously, supporting the well-being, taking care of working employees and not missing out on job losses is the way to maintain sustainable production resources. The package to support workers and employers affected by the pandemic from the balance of the Unemployment Insurance Fund with a total budget of about VND 30,000 billion of the Government (Resolution No. 116/NQ-CP dated September 24 -2021) is a national decision to restore labor resources.

Through many policies being implemented, it is believed that the level of impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the labor market and employment will gradually decrease, the whole country can achieve the goal of creating new jobs for more than 1 person. million workers in 2021.

Thanh Thao