Vietnam exported more than 1.1 million tons of green coffee beans

According to the latest data, coffee prices on the world market this morning continued to be under strong downward pressure. World coffee prices this week increased sharply both domestically and internationally. Summarizing last week, the price of Robusta coffee for July delivery increased by 228 USD. Arabica coffee futures price for July delivery increased by 4.1 Cent. In the past two weeks, coffee prices have increased sharply. Concerns that excessive drought in Brazil and Vietnam will damage coffee crops and limit global output, remain the main reason for rising prices.

Domestic coffee prices increased by an average of 4,500 VND/kg last week. The weekend session remained stable compared to the same time last week, however, in the market session at the beginning of the month (June 1), domestic coffee prices suddenly decreased after 6 consecutive sessions of increase. Last week's trading week ended in the price range of 119,000 - 120,000 VND/kg.

The downward pressure occurred when a series of hedge funds actively liquidated previous short-buying contracts and "took profits" after the recent strong increase. Notably, recent price drops only take place on weekends.

According to coffee market expert Nguyen Quang Binh, although coffee prices decreased during the weekend, the market still recorded a week of positive price increases. For the whole of last week, the price of Robusta coffee for delivery in July 2024 increased by 374 USD/ton; Meanwhile, Arabica coffee futures for delivery in July 2024 increased by 11.65 cents.

In the first 7 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October 2023 to April 2024), Vietnam exported more than 1.1 million tons of domestic coffee.

Currently, a part of investors still expect that Robusta coffee prices may conquer the historic mark of 4,338 USD/ton in the near future as the risk of Robusta supply shortage from Vietnam still exists. Although the Central Highlands region of Vietnam has entered the rainy season, rainfall is low and sparse, making it difficult to care for coffee gardens.

In addition, some major coffee growing regions of Brazil have had initial warnings that heat conditions may continue, posing risks to the 2024/2025 crop production prospects.

Mr. Nguyen Quang Binh also said that one of the main driving forces for coffee's increase is outside the supply and demand factors of the market. Those are macroeconomic signals of countries around the world.

Last week, it was inflation data in the US that pointed the direction for the coffee market. On May 31, the US Department of Commerce announced that the core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE, excluding food and energy prices) increased only 0.2% in April 2024, in line with the market forecast.

According to Mr. Nguyen Quang Binh, after the US inflation data was released, traders predicted the possibility of cutting interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September 2024 to be 53%, higher. 4% compared to previous report.

This will cause the USD to gradually cool down compared to other global currencies, helping to promote money flow into financial markets, including commodity markets.

Commenting on coffee prices this week, Mr. Nguyen Quang Binh said it is difficult to predict accurately. However, the net selling on the two exchanges last weekend will continue until the beginning of this week. Therefore, the market is forecast to continue to decline in the beginning of the week, and depends on the direction of the USD.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), coffee prices are continuing to recover. In which, Robusta price increased sharply by 5.86% and Arabica price increased by 1.88% compared to the reference.

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) warns of a potential frost risk in Campinas, Macro Metropolitana and Vale do Paraíba Paulista and South/Southwest of Minas, spreading to cities such as Campos do Jordão (SP) and Extrema (MG ). Frost not only delays the 2024-2025 coffee harvest in Brazil, but even causes output loss in the following years if the coffee trees dry out.

In the second 2024 crop survey results report, the Brazilian government's Crop Supply Agency CONAB lowered the country's Robusta coffee production forecast by 600,000 bags, to 16.7 million bags in a new report. best.

Along with that, StoneX estimates that Vietnam's coffee output may only reach 24 million bags, which is the lowest level in the past 4 years. Analysts said that climate change causes supply to decrease in Vietnam.

On the domestic market, although adjusted downward last weekend with a relatively strong decrease of 3,500 - 4,000 VND/kg, bringing the domestic coffee purchasing price to 119,000 - 120,000 VND/kg; However, compared to the previous week, the price of green coffee in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces still increased by about 5,000 VND/kg.

According to statistics, in the first 7 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (from October 2023 to April 2024), Vietnam exported more than 1.1 million tons of green coffee, down 1.5% over the same period. crop year 2022-2023. With this result, our country has exported about 65 - 70% of the total expected output of about 1.6 - 1.7 million tons of the current crop year.

Currently, Vietnam's coffee industry is benefiting from a sharp increase in export prices. Although export volume decreased slightly by 3.9% compared to the previous year, value increased by 49.9% due to high coffee prices.

Vietnam is still the world's largest source of Robusta coffee. However, in recent months, the amount of coffee exported has tended to decrease.