In the first 4 months of the year, coffee exports reached nearly 670,000 tons, earning 2.23 billion USD

At the end of the trading session on May 3, world coffee prices extended their sharp decline this week and reached their lowest level in a month due to increased global supply. Thus, after reaching a record high, last week Robusta coffee prices decreased by a total of 623 USD/ton - the highest decrease ever.

Specifically, on ICE Futures Europe, the price of Robusta coffee delivered in July 2024 decreased by 139 USD/ton, at 3,541 USD/ton, for delivery in September 2024 decreased by 147 USD/ton, at 3,470 USD/ton.

Similarly, on ICE Futures US, the price of Arabica coffee delivered in July 2024 decreased by 5.50 cents/lb, at 200.60 cents/lb, for delivery in September 2024 decreased by 5.35 cents/lb, at 199 cents/lb.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports in March 2024 increased by 8.1% over the same period last year to 12.99 million bags (60 kg/bag) and accumulated in the first 6 months. In the 2023/2024 crop year (from October 2023 to March 2024), global coffee exports increased by 10.4% over the same period last year, to 69.16 million bags.

The recovery of coffee inventories on ICE also eased concerns about supply and caused coffee prices to fall. Data shows that Robusta coffee inventory on ICE Futures Europe as of May 3 reached 40,590 tons - the highest level in the past 5 months. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee inventory on ICE Futures US also recovered to its highest level in the past year, reaching 689,178 bags.

In the first 4 months of this year, the country's coffee exports reached nearly 670,000 tons, up 4.6% over the same period in 2023. Photo VNA

Coffee prices on both floors continue to drop sharply, in just the past 3 days, Robusta lost nearly 500 USD/ton. Experts said that last month, countries around the world were concerned about tensions in the Middle East, so they actively bought goods at high prices, causing inventory to increase significantly. Besides, Brazil is about to enter the harvest season, so the world market is less worried about supply shortages.

In addition, tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran suddenly cooled down quickly, causing concerns about the transportation of goods to subside. In addition, coffee was sold off very strongly, pushing coffee prices down sharply.

One of the other reasons is that the first rains of the season in many coffee growing areas in Vietnam and Brazil have reduced concerns about affecting output.

In the domestic market, coffee prices today on May 4 are in the range of 117,500 - 118,200 VND/kg in the Central Highlands provinces after a sharp decrease to 12,500 VND/kg. Thus, coffee prices today in the Central Highlands region decreased sharply for the third consecutive day.

Specifically, today's coffee price in Lam Dong decreased by 8,000 VND/kg, down to 109,500 VND/kg. Coffee price today in Gia Lai decreased by 8,000 VND/kg, down to 110,000 VND/kg; in Dak Lak decreased by 8,000 VND/kg, down to 110,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, today's coffee price in Dak Nong decreased by 8,000 VND/kg, down to 110,200 VND/kg.

Thus, since the beginning of May 2024 until now, domestic coffee prices have decreased by 18.0% compared to the end of April, equivalent to a decrease of over 24,000 VND/kg.

Preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs show that in the first 4 months of this year, the country's coffee exports reached nearly 670,000 tons, up 4.6% over the same period in 2023; Turnover reached more than 2.23 billion USD, an increase of 56.4%. The average export coffee price reached 3,351 USD/ton, up 49.5% over the same period in 2023.

According to the Industry and Trade Information Center - Ministry of Industry and Trade (VITIC), Arabica coffee prices decreased by 3% this week and hit the lowest level a month ago, forecasting rain in Brazil next week as well as inventory levels. increase. World coffee prices decreased partly because Brazil was preparing for the harvest.

In addition, the decrease in coffee prices is also due to psychological factors, when the market is worried that US financial management policies will change. Specifically, the London market is concerned about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) adjusting interest rates at its meeting on May 1. However, on the morning of May 2 (Vietnam time), the Fed announced to keep the current interest rate unchanged.

Forecasting coffee prices from now until the end of 2024 is still a bit early, because there will be many fluctuations in weather, as well as supply from producing countries. However, analysts' comments as well as Top traders will influence current prices.

It is forecast that global coffee consumption in the 2023/24 crop year will increase by 20% compared to the 2013/14 crop year, with notable growth in Asia. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that consumption in major producing countries such as Indonesia increased by 90%; China, the world's seventh largest coffee consumer, increased by 130%.