According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), closing the trading session on January 2, Arabica prices increased slightly by 0.98% while Robusta prices continued to decrease by 1.3% compared to the reference. Concerns about supply shortages are always lurking in the market, making Arabica prices unable to prolong their decline.

Coffee export prices continue to decrease

In the closing report on December 29, the total number of Arabica certified on the ICE-US Department was at 251,224 bags of 60kg, down 7,175 bags compared to the previous session. Uncertainty about the ability to recover inventory data makes concerns about supply in the market unlikely to disappear.

Furthermore, it is forecast that hot weather will continue to threaten Brazil's 2024/25 coffee supply prospects. The Minas Gerais Meteorological and Water Resources System (Simge) said the average temperature in the first quarter of 2024 in the country's main coffee growing region could be 2 degrees Celsius higher than normal. This slows down the growth of coffee trees that produce fruit in the 2024/25 crop year. Along with that, inventories are currently low, causing Brazilian farmers to fear about supply, thereby limiting sales.

On the domestic market, recorded this morning (January 3), the price of green coffee in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces also simultaneously decreased by 300 VND/kg. Accordingly, domestic coffee is currently purchased around 67,300 - 68,200 VND/kg.

A report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that in the 2022-2023 crop year (from October 2022 to the end of September 2023), global green coffee exports are 123 million bags, down 5.6 % compared to the 2021-2022 crop year.

It is worth noting that while overall green coffee exports have decreased, global Robusta coffee exports have increased, as many consumers around the world switch from high-priced Arabica coffee to high-quality Robusta coffee. cheaper price. This is clearly shown through ICO data.

In the 2022-2023 crop year, global Arabica coffee exports only reached 67.05 million bags, down 10.1% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year. In contrast, Robusta coffee exports reached 43.76 million bags, an increase of 2.6%.

After 11 months, Vietnam's coffee exports are still increasing

Consumers have strongly switched from Arabica to Robusta coffee, causing the world price of Robusta coffee to increase sharply, thereby greatly affecting the export price of coffee in Vietnam - the largest Robusta coffee producer. world.

Due to the increase in export coffee prices, domestic green coffee prices have also reached historic milestones, at one point reaching 70,000 VND/kg, an unprecedented level. It can be said that the price of green coffee in 2023 is beyond the expectations of everyone in the coffee industry, from farmers to buyers and exporters. Therefore, when the price rose above 60,000 VND/kg, most farmers did not enjoy this price because they massively sold out of coffee when the price was just over 50,000 VND/kg - a level at which farmers found it profitable. Good.

By the beginning of the 2023-2024 crop year (starting from October 2023), the price of green coffee beans is still high, over 60,000 VND/kg. Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Intimex Group, said that in all previous coffee seasons, we have never seen a crop where the price of green coffee beans was so high at the beginning of the crop year.

Recorded from the latest report of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in November 2023, Vietnam's average coffee export price decreased after continuously increasing in previous months, reaching 2,990 USD/ton. , down 17% compared to October 2023, but still up 26.2% compared to November 2022.

In the first 11 months of 2023, our country's average coffee export price reached 2,573 USD/ton, up 12% over the same period last year.

In November 2023, our country's coffee exports to the markets of Italy, the United States, Japan, Spain, Belgium... decreased compared to the same period last year. On the contrary, Vietnam's coffee exports to a number of markets have positive growth, including: Germany, Russia, Algeria, Korea, Philippines... In total, in the first 11 months of 2023, coffee exports to most markets tradition and reduced potential, except Algeria, South Korea...