The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) cited statistics from the General Department of Customs to estimate that in 2023, Vietnam's rubber exports will reach about 2.14 million tons, worth 2.89 billion USD, a decrease of 0 .04% in volume and down 12.7% in value compared to 2022. The average export price reached 1,350 USD/ton, down 12.7% compared to 2022.

Rubber exports in 2023 only earn 2.89 billion USD

In 2023, Vietnam's rubber exports will face many difficulties due to a sharp decline in rubber export prices, so the rubber export value is much lower than the same period last year. Meanwhile, the recovery of production activities in China is weaker than forecasts, causing both rubber consumption and selling prices to be low.

In 2023, rubber exports to most markets will still decline compared to the same period in 2022, especially major markets such as India, the United States, Germany, Taiwan (China), Turkey, Sri Lanka, Russia, Indonesia, Spain... However, exports to some markets still grow well in volume such as China, Korea, Netherlands, Singapore, Czech Republic...

Among them, China is still the largest market consuming Vietnamese rubber, accounting for 79.22% in volume and 78.08% in value of the country's total rubber exports in the first 11 months of 2023. Ranked second is India, accounting for 5.34% in volume and 5.49% in value of the country's total rubber exports in the first 11 months of 2023.

On the world market, in 2023, rubber prices in the Asian market fluctuate strongly, prices were low in the first two quarters of the year and increased again in the third and fourth quarters of 2023. Prices reached yearly highs in October and November 2023, but have since fallen again. In December 2023, rubber prices fluctuated in opposite directions, compared to the end of last month, prices in Japan decreased; While gains in Shanghai and Thailand were boosted by steady demand from Chinese factories, market hopes for stimulus measures in China and concerns about possible supply shortages from Thailand.

In the domestic market, in 2023, the price of domestic raw rubber latex fluctuates according to the trend of the world market. Latex prices decreased in the first two quarters of the year, then increased again in the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

In December 2023, raw rubber latex prices in some provinces and cities fluctuated slightly, rubber latex purchasing prices in Binh Phuoc and Gia Lai were stable, while prices in Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau increased slightly compared to the end of last month.

In particular, Phu Rieng Rubber Company kept the purchasing price at 285-305 VND/TSC. Binh Long Rubber Company keeps the purchasing price at 285-295 VND/TSC. However, Ba Ria Rubber Company adjusted the purchasing price to 283-293 VND/TSC, an increase of 3 VND/TSC; Phuoc Hoa Rubber Company also adjusted the purchasing price of raw rubber latex to 314-316 VND/TSC, an increase of 3 VND/TSC compared to the end of November 2023.

According to Vietnam Rubber Industry Group (VRG), in 2023, the Group's rubber latex output is estimated to reach 445,000 tons, exceeding the yearly plan by 4.7%, increasing by 3.5% (corresponding to an increase of 15,400 tons). tons) compared to the previous year; Consumption reached 520,290 tons of rubber of all kinds, reaching 102.4% of the year's plan, an increase of 3.8% (equivalent to an increase of 18,968 tons) compared to 2022. On average in 2023, the Group's rubber latex selling price is estimated to about 30.5 million VND/ton, down 5.8 million VND/ton (equivalent to a decrease of nearly 16%) compared to the selling price in 2022.

According to industry experts, in the coming time, Chinese demand will still be the key factor affecting rubber price developments in Vietnam. In addition, fluctuations in oil prices due to concerns about trade disruption at the Suez Canal will also indirectly affect rubber prices.

In 2024, it is expected that China will boost automobile consumption, as well as promote manufacturing activities, leading to increased demand for imported rubber to produce tires and other products. China's push to import rubber will be a driving force in increasing global rubber prices. Meanwhile, nearly 80% of Vietnam's total rubber exports are exported to China.