According to Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), after falling sharply last week, closed the November 11 trading session. 12, coffee prices increased by 3.92% for Arabica and 3.8% for Robusta, respectively. Vietnam's coffee exports increased after 7 consecutive months of decline, not enough to overwhelm heat risk information in Brazil.

Coffee prices skyrocketed

According to data from the General Department of Customs, in November, Vietnam exported 119,297 tons of coffee, an increase of 172.8% compared to the previous month. This is also the first month of increase after 7 consecutive months of export decline. However, the amount of coffee exported last month was still lower than more than 120,000 tons in the same period in 2022. Cumulative exports in the first 11 months of 2023 decreased by 10% compared to the previous year.

Furthermore, heat tends to spread to Brazil's main coffee growing region in the next 10 days, posing a potential risk for the 2024/25 coffee crop to develop. This raises doubts about the positive coffee supply outlook forecast for the next crop year in Brazil made by consulting firms previously.

On the domestic market, recorded this morning (December 12), the price of green coffee in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces fluctuated between 60,700 - 61,600 VND/kg, a sharp increase compared to the previous day.

Domestic coffee export prices increased because supply has not recovered

For exports, according to Mr. Do Ha Nam - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa), in the 2023/2024 crop year, domestic coffee consumption is expected to continue to increase, the total capacity of coffee factories is expected to increase. Instant coffee processing machines are estimated to produce 100,000 tons of finished products/year, equivalent to 230,000 tons of green coffee and are expected to increase in the near future due to many investment projects and expansion of factory capacity.

In 2024, the market for roasted, ground, processed coffee and domestic consumption is stable, expected to reach about 150,000 tons. Total domestic green coffee consumption could increase to 350,000-400,000 tons/year if instant coffee factories reach full capacity.

Commenting on the coffee export situation in the 2023/2024 crop year, Mr. Do Ha Nam said that due to reduced output combined with increased domestic consumption demand, it is expected that Vietnam's coffee export volume in the year The 2023/2024 crop will continue to decrease, down to about 1.4 million tons.

However, because coffee prices continue to rise, it is likely that export turnover will set a new record, reaching 4.5 - 5 billion USD. Last crop year, Vietnam's coffee industry also achieved an export record of more than 4 billion USD despite reduced output.

To aim for sustainable coffee export, many coffee growing areas in Vietnam are proactively replanting and introducing quality, good-yielding coffee varieties into processing. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Ministry and localities with large coffee growing areas are currently conducting surveys and regional planning associated with identification of growing areas, ensuring export standards from the planting process.

The Ministry will also work with other ministries, branches and localities to request the Government to support production, especially the construction of coffee processing factories in growing areas. The goal is that from now until 2025, the whole country will replant 75,000 hectares and transplant and renovate 32,000 hectares of coffee, of which Arabica coffee accounts for about 20% of the total area. In addition, most of the replanted coffee area is planted with new varieties with high yield and outstanding quality.

Bao NGoc