Output decreases, coffee prices are expected to continue to increase

After 3 years of being affected by Covid-19, on December 5, the 27th Asian International Coffee Conference (Coffee Outlook) was held again in the city. Ho Chi Minh.

The conference was attended by more than 150 delegates from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Coffee Associations of countries, corporations and businesses involved in the fields of production, processing and export business. Coffee imports from Vietnam, as well as internationally.

The conference is an opportunity for businesses to meet, exchange, connect, share information and update the current status of production - the latest trends in the coffee market, and the potential for consumption growth of coffee markets. Coffee from China, India, Thailand, Philippines, Australia...

Speaking at the conference, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa) assessed that the 2022-2023 coffee crop year is a difficult and challenging crop for farmers and farmers. corporations and businesses participating in the coffee import-export production and business chain.

Panorama of the 27th Asian International Coffee Conference

In that context, coffee exports globally in the 2022-2023 crop year will decline due to the global macroeconomic environment Not conducive to consumer confidence, rising inflation combined with rising interest rates in many key economies, increases the cost of living, thereby reducing disposable income levels over the long term for with most countries in the world.

However, the 2022-2023 coffee crop has also achieved remarkable results. According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), total coffee production in the 2022-2023 crop year worldwide reached 171.3 million bags, an increase of 1.7% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year.

Forecasting the 2023-2024 coffee crop, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai said that the new coffee crop has been going for 2 months and is forecast to continue to be a difficult and challenging crop for the coffee industry. world coffee. Climate change with extreme weather events will greatly affect the global coffee supply, reducing productivity, output and quality.

It is forecasted that coffee prices in the 2023 - 2024 crop year will continue to increase

Vietnam is in the harvest season of the new crop year and has harvested an estimated 50% or more of the country's coffee output. Some areas harvested late due to rainy weather, and output is expected to be much lower than expected.

“Due to the effects of climate change and crop conversion when coffee prices in recent years have been too low, Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 11 months of 2023 decreased by nearly 13% compared to the same period last year. period 2022. It is likely that Vietnam's coffee exports will decrease by nearly 15% in 2023", Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai predicted.

Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of Vicofa, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Intimex Group also said that 2023 is a very special year for the coffee industry when domestic and export coffee prices continue to increase. In particular, there was a time when domestic coffee price increased to 70,000 VND/kg. This is the highest price in many years.

Although coffee prices in 2023 will increase, many coffee areas have converted previous crops to grow durian, fruit... “Every hectare of coffee Currently brings in a profit of about 200 million VND, while avocado trees bring in 1-1.5 billion VND, 5 times more than coffee. Therefore, it is very difficult to keep farmers with coffee," said Mr. Do Ha Nam.

Also according to Mr. Nam, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam's coffee area is currently at 700,000 hectares, but in reality it may only be over 600,000 hectares. Accordingly, in the 2023-2024 crop year, Vietnam's coffee output is expected to decrease slightly to about 1.6-1.7 million tons, compared to 1.78 million tons in the 2022-2023 crop year, and coffee prices will continue to increase and establish a new price level. “Vietnamese coffee prices will continue to increase at least until April 2024 until Indo and Brazil enter the new harvest season”, Mr. South forecast.

At the conference, domestic and international experts also emphasized the need for sustainable development and green growth for the global coffee industry. Accordingly, from the beginning of the 2023-2024 crop year, the coffee industry must have an action plan to adapt to regulations against deforestation and forest degradation (EUDR), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and European Union carbon certificate. The step-by-step implementation of these programs demonstrates the global coffee industry's responsibility to protect the environment, protect nature, and minimize the impact of climate change...

Ms. Vanúsia Nogueira - Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that Vietnamese coffee producers must comply with general regulations and laws. Because this is a prerequisite for exporting coffee to Europe, especially in the context that all relevant parties are considering and exploring the market. Coffee producers must demonstrate environmental and social responsibility if they want to bring products to the world market. This is very important.

“I think coffee producers in Vietnam have been doing this. However, businesses need marketing to let importers know more about this”, Ms. Vanúsia Nogueira emphasized.