Coffee export prices are forecast to increase until April 2024

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's average export price of coffee in November 2023 reached 3,148 USD/ton, up 32.8% compared to November 2022. In the cumulative 11 months of this year, Vietnam's average export price of this type of nut is estimated at 2,570 USD/ton, up 11.9% over the same period last year.

Coffee export prices are anchored at a high level

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) predicts that the 2023/2024 coffee crop has passed for 2 months and is forecast to continue to be a difficult and challenging crop for the world coffee industry. . Climate change with extreme weather events will greatly affect the global coffee supply, reducing productivity, output and quality.

Vietnam is in the harvest season of the new crop year and has harvested an estimated 50% or more of the country's coffee output. Some areas harvested late due to rainy weather, and output is expected to be much lower than expected.

Due to the impact of climate change and crop conversion when coffee prices in recent years have been too low, Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 11 months of 2023 decreased by nearly 13% compared to the same period in 2022. Potential For the whole year of 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports will decrease by nearly 15% to 1,411 million tons. Supply pressure will also help coffee export prices increase.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam's coffee area is currently at 700,000 hectares, but in reality it may only be over 600,000 hectares. Accordingly, in the 2023/2024 crop year, Vietnam's coffee output is expected to decrease slightly to about 1.6-1.7 million tons, compared to 1.78 million tons in the 2022/2023 crop year, and coffee prices will continue to increase and establish a new price level. Vietnamese coffee prices are forecast to continue to increase at least until April 2024 until Indonesia and Brazil enter the new harvest season.

In the commodity derivatives market, according to Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), closing session 6/ 12, the prices of two coffee products decreased by 4.63% respectively for Arabica in the March contract and 0.81% for Robusta in the January contract. Inventories on the New York Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) increased again. combined, combined with a positive supply outlook in the 2023/24 crop year, has put pressure on prices.

Coffee prices in the commodity derivatives market decreased slightly

In the closing report on December 5, the ICE-US Department said that the amount of standard Arabica stored here increased by 5,275 bags of 60kg, to 229,341 bags, temporarily escaping the lowest level in more than 24 years. The main coffee producing countries continue to send goods to await certification with 19,568 bags. However, the downward trend in prices is forecast to not last long.

On the domestic market, recorded this morning (December 7), the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces fluctuated between 59,900 - 60,500 VND/kg, an increase of 800 VND/kg compared to yesterday. before.

In 2023, in the domestic market, there will be a time when the coffee price will increase to nearly 70,000 VND/kg. It is predicted that the next crop may increase even more because of the lack of supply.

Vicofa recommends that coffee prices will increase if farmers pay attention to the quality of raw coffee beans. To have the best quality coffee beans, the coffee must be picked when it is ripe. When the coffee fruit ripens, its weight will increase by 10%. This both helps increase coffee output and improve coffee quality during processing, Mr. Nam emphasized.

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