Mr. Nguyen Van Don - Director of Viet Hung Co., Ltd. (Tien Giang) had an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper reporters about this issue.

How do you evaluate the rice export situation in the first 9 months of 2023?

The history of rice export over the past 34 years recorded three record numbers in output, value and average export price in 2011 of 7.1 million tons, respectively; 3.65 billion USD and 495 USD/ton. This accurately reflects the situation and rice export market of Vietnam from the beginning of the year until now.

It is forecasted that rice exports in 2023 will bring in about 5 billion USD

This year, although the export rice output is not more, due to the increase in rice export prices, the rice export value has increased to a record high.

Last year, we exported 7.3 million tons, this year is expected to export a maximum of about 7.8 - 7.9 million tons because the planted area has not increased much.

With an export price of about 580 - 600 USD/ton, rice exports are expected to bring in about 5 billion USD. This number is much higher than in other years.

Vietnam's export rice prices in recent days are still the highest and most expensive in the world, while the rice prices of competitors continue to decline sharply. In your opinion, what is the cause?

The reason is because our current output is not much and we have to wait until the Fall-Winter crop. Furthermore, the price of rice in many places is so high that export businesses signing contracts are also cautious and do not dare to sign large contracts.

The Philippines - the largest customer of Vietnamese rice - officially removed the domestic rice price ceiling, which will help the market recover. Rice prices will remain high and will be difficult to decrease.

Increased demand and limited rice production mean rice prices will remain high. However, it is predicted that from now until the end of the year, rice prices will not decrease but will also hardly increase.

Because currently, although India bans the export of non-basmati white rice, it still sells contracts between the Government and the Government. Moreover, here, Vietnam will enter the autumn-winter harvest, while the Thai market also needs to sell. To be more precise, everyone needs to sell rice to earn foreign currency.

Mr. Nguyen Van Don - Director of Viet Hung Company Limited (Tien Giang) (photo Nguyen Huyen - luagaoviet.com)

In the past, there was a time when the export price of 5% broken rice reached 638 USD/ton and 25% broken rice reached 623 USD/ton. However, it is forecasted that the rice price will be around 600 USD/ton, not difficult. increase.

This price will be the harmony of all parties. Farmers are profitable, export businesses are easy to make and sell. World demand is still there, but if it increases too much, importers cannot bear it and will switch to buying other food products.

In the context of rising rice prices, do farmers benefit much, sir?

Compared to many years past, in 2023, rice growers will benefit the most. The future trend, if rice prices remain like this (not increasing anymore), will be very good. World buyers also accept, rice growers are effective. For export enterprises, the more stable the market is, the more the enterprise will be able to calculate the purchase price and quantity as well as the selling price and quantity.

Like this year, businesses that signed orders before India banned rice exports will suffer losses. It is likened to "welcoming the wind, meeting the bad wind", because they sign in advance at low export prices while having to buy at high prices to pay for previously signed export orders.

According to your forecast, when will India lift the ban on rice exports?

At this time, India probably has not lifted the ban on rice exports because the current price of rice they sell in contracts between the Government and the Government is at a very good level. Besides, due to high inflation, they also have to maintain food prices. On the other hand, by 2024, India will have elections, so they are also very concerned about the issue of rising food prices.

In the context of the current world export market, do you have any plans for purchasing rice in the near future, sir?

In the Fall-Winter season, the harvest is not much, so we buy as much as we sell and do not dare to sign large orders. Because of large orders, if there are strong changes in the market, businesses cannot buy in time. However, currently, the market has improved a lot and the price has been determined.

Because our export business has main customers in China and Africa, we recently made a few orders and sold them to customers in the Chinese market at quite high prices. Currently, China is entering a holiday season, and we have not signed any new or large orders.

We still have a few small orders exported to the African market, and we have finished preparing them.

Exporting to the Chinese market is easy if you know how to do it. We need to comply with market regulations. Currently, there are 22 Vietnamese enterprises with export licenses to this market. Therefore, the competition problem is also eased.

Thank you!