Preparing for the new crop, coffee exports are expected to increase again

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), closing the trading day on October 4, in the coffee market , Arabica prices continued to decrease by 1.61%. At the same time, Robusta price is also 1% lower than the reference, pushing the price to the lowest level in more than 1 month. MXV said positive supply from Brazil continues to be the main factor putting pressure on prices.

Coffee prices decreased slightly on October 4

According to information from the Brazilian Government, the world's largest coffee supplier exported 177,685 tons of green coffee (2.69 million 60kg bags), an increase of 10.5% compared to 169,678 tons in the same period last year. 2022.

At the same time, more rainfall and rain frequency in Brazil's main production area helps provide moisture and reduce heat for better flowering of coffee plants. This helps limit negative concerns about coffee output in the 2024/25 crop year.

Furthermore, coffee inventories on the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE) are showing positive signs, also somewhat increasing pressure on prices. Inventories of standard Arabica on the ICE-US Department at the end of the October 3 session increased by 2,926 bags of 60kg, to 444,871 bags. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee on the ICE-EU Department is also at 42,380 tons, a significant increase compared to the lowest level in August, just under 34,000 tons.

On the domestic market, similar to world price movements, this morning, green coffee prices in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces continued to be adjusted downward for the 4th consecutive day, with a decrease of about 400 - 600 VND/kg. After adjustment, domestic coffee prices are currently purchased at around 65,400 - 65,000 VND/kg.

The new crop year of the coffee industry will begin in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the beginning of the first quarter of 2024.

According to the latest data from the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's coffee exports in September decreased sharply, reaching 65,000 tons, down 23.2% compared to August and down 32.7% compared to the same period in 2022. Export turnover reached 205 million USD, down 20.8% compared to August and down 12.8% over the same period last year.

Accumulated in the first 9 months of 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 1.27 million tons, down 7.3% over the same period last year; Turnover reached 3.16 billion USD, up 1.9%.

However, according to the Import-Export Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade, accumulated in the first 9 months of 2023, Vietnam's average coffee export price is still high, estimated at 2,499 USD/ton, an increase of 9.9% compared to the previous year. same period in 2022. This is a high price for many years.

Coffee exports are expected to increase again from November when Vietnam enters the 2023 - 2024 coffee harvest (taking place in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the beginning of the first quarter of 2024). Meanwhile, domestic coffee prices may also decrease. However, coffee prices have now established a new level due to input costs such as electricity, fertilizer, pesticides... all increasing. It is forecasted that in the short term, domestic coffee prices will remain above 64,000 VND/kg.

Over the past three decades (since the 1986 reform), coffee has been one of the most important contributors to the revenue of Vietnam's agricultural sector in particular and to the entire national GDP in general.

The coffee industry has created more than half a million direct and indirect jobs and is the main livelihood for thousands of households in agricultural production areas. Coffee export value usually accounts for about 15% of total agricultural export turnover and the proportion of coffee has always exceeded 10% of agricultural GDP in recent years. Coffee is also a key export product in the agricultural product group.

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