According to the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas), the amount of cashew kernels exported and imported raw cashew nuts both decreased significantly compared to the same period in 2021. In terms of exports, it is expected that in 2022, Vietnam will only export cashew kernels with value. USD 3.07 billion, has not yet achieved the target of USD 3.2 billion in export turnover (although it has decreased by about USD 600 million compared to the original target of USD 3.8 billion). Thus, in 2022, the 10-year export growth period of the cashew industry has ended, from 2011 to 2021.

Why does the cashew industry only aim to export $3.1 billion in 2023?

The reason is that in most periods in 2022, importers and processors tend to be slow to buy raw materials because the price of raw cashew nuts is still very high compared to the selling price, and the export processing cost is high. while the selling price for export is low. Export processing factories are difficult to balance to ensure the efficiency of production and business activities.

The impact of the energy and food crisis on inflation and the health of the economies of many countries, as well as on the level of spending of the general population, leads to spending on non-essential foods such as cashews that have been reduced. affect.

Meanwhile, another major market for Vietnam's cashew nuts is China, which has maintained the "Zero Covid" policy until the end of 2022, thereby having a certain adverse effect on the export of cashew kernels as well as other agricultural products. from Vietnam to this market.

This situation is forecasted to continue into 2023, cashew nut consumption will be slow and prices will be difficult to increase. The situation of cashew exports in the period of 2022 - 2023 is forecasted to be even more difficult than in the period of 2019 - 2021.

Mr. Pham Van Cong - Chairman of Vinacas assessed that in 2023, production activities as well as the supply chain of cashew nuts globally and in Vietnam will continue to face many difficulties and challenges due to factors such as conflict. Russia - Ukraine.

In addition, the international political-economic situation, inflation and economic recession, the State Bank's policy of tightening credit, USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations, consumption decline, processing costs Variables are increasing, production stagnates…

The above factors will cause the growth of the cashew industry to be significantly affected when the global demand for cashew kernels continues to be gloomy; The world cashew raw material market will face many challenges… Therefore, Vinacas only aims to export cashew nuts for 2023 at a very modest figure of 3.1 billion USD.

Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoa - Vice Chairman of Vinacas said that usually, at the beginning of the new year, businesses will sign long-term contracts, at least until the third quarter. However, this year most importers in the US and EU did not sign contracts to buy cashew kernels until the end of the second quarter of 2023, if signed, the quantity is very low.

In the context of abundant supply, global raw cashew production continues to increase sharply by 15-20% per year as many countries expand cashew acreage. While the output of raw cashew nuts increased sharply, the demand for cashew kernels in normal times only increased by 5-10% per year. Supply and demand in the cashew industry have been close to each other, which means that the price of cashew kernels is very difficult to increase.

In the context that the price of W320 cashew kernels is on a downward trend, the price of Ivory Coast raw cashew nuts is still being offered at a high level. Experts said that the risk is very large for businesses importing cashew. Therefore, businesses should consider and should not rush to import raw cashews at the beginning of the year.

In the context that the export market is facing many difficulties, Vinacas recommends that businesses flexibly find small markets such as Asian countries, replacing large volatile markets such as the US , EU, and China markets. Country. Besides, exploiting the domestic market is also a solution to overcome difficulties of cashew processing enterprises.