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Rice prices are high, exports have many opportunities for breakthroughs in 2023

Export exceeds expectations, fragrant rice price is over 1,000 USD/ton

According to data from the General Department of Customs, as of December 15, the country's rice exports reached over 6.8 million tons, bringing in more than $3.3 billion, up 15.2% in volume and up. 6.5% in value over the same period in 2021. With this figure, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development expects that in 2022, the amount of rice exported will reach over 7 million tons, the revenue is estimated at 3. 5 - 3.6 billion USD.

It is worth noting that the export price of Vietnamese rice in the market has continued to increase in recent days. Specifically, on December 22, the asking price of Vietnam's 5% broken rice for export was at 453 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton compared to the beginning of December; 25% broken rice is priced at 438 USD/ton, up 5 USD/ton. Even, the price of 5% broken rice in Vietnam sometimes surpasses Thailand and ranks first in the world. For example, in November 2022, while Thailand's offering price of 5% broken rice was only $440/ton, Vietnam recorded $447/ton.

Rice prices are high, exports have many opportunities for breakthroughs in 2023
Rice exports in 2022 are successful in both value and output.

Looking back at the results of the rice industry in 2022, Mr. Do Ha Nam - Vice President of the Vietnam Food Association analyzed: 2022 is a year with many fluctuations in the market, especially at the beginning of the year when rice prices go down. In the middle of the third quarter, rice prices fluctuated again. However, this is still a quite successful year for Vietnamese food exporters and producers. In particular, rice exports to some major markets such as the Philippines recorded a growth of nearly 30%.

"This has been a very successful year for the industry and is a number that no one in the industry thought they would achieve," said Mr. Do Ha Nam.

Not only recording output exceeding the set plan, 2022 also marks the entry of Vietnamese rice into the Middle East and European markets with the "Made in Vietnam" brand of Vietnamese enterprises at a high price of over $1,000/ton. . “In the European market, we are exporting with Trung An's own brand with prices over 1,000 USD/ton for ST24, ST25 fragrant rice. Also in the past year, we also expanded our exports to the Middle East and kept it stable in the markets of Korea and Malaysia…” said Mr. Pham Thai Binh, General Director of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company.

Continue to “brighten the door” in 2023

From the background of 2022, rice exporters forecast that, in 2023, rice exports will have many breakthrough opportunities. Specifically, according to Mr. Do Ha Nam, reaching high prices at the end of the crop, especially at the end of 2022, will give rice exporters an advantage to negotiate contracts in 2023. “Previous years are usually at the end of the year. rice price is very low, so import partners often base on that price to negotiate to buy the winter-spring crop. However, this year, we reached a high price at the end of the crop, so we also hope that the contracts signed for the winter-spring crop in 2023 will be better. More importantly, the price increase will be the driving force for farmers' production to have more motivation, thereby expanding the area and improving productivity "- Mr. Do Ha Nam forecast.

In addition to having a good price background, in many markets such as the Philippines, China, Europe or Bangladesh ... there are also many prospects. In particular, for the Chinese market, the country's recent announcement that it will reopen is also said to be a positive signal for rice exporters. Because in the past years, Vietnam exported 2.5 to 3 million tons of food to the Chinese market. However, in recent years, it has only hovered around 1 million tons, there are even years when we only have 500,000 tons. "Since the end of last year, we see the Chinese market starting to be more stable and with the country's reopening policy, we believe that in 2003 rice exports to China can reach 1 million tons" - Do Ha Nam said.

In the Bangladesh market, at the end of November 2022, Bangladesh's Minister of Foodstuffs came to Vietnam to work directly with the Southern Food Corporation (VINAFOOD II). At this meeting, Mr. Sadhan Chandra Majumder, Minister of Food of Bangladesh, affirmed that the country's rice production is not enough to supply 170 million people and still needs to import rice, with the main supply being India. India, Vietnam and Myanmar. Therefore, Bangladesh has agreed to extend the MOU on rice trade with Vietnam for another 5 years.

It is known that VINAFOOD II previously served as the focal point for supplying rice under the MOU (memorandum of understanding) over the years to Bangladesh. Of which, 2011 provided 450,000 tons; in 2017 supply 250,000 tons; in 2021 supply 52,500 tons of white rice; and in 2022 provide 230,000 tons of rice. With the continued extension of this MOU, it will create more opportunities for Vietnamese rice to penetrate the Bangladeshi market stably in the near future.

Or with the Philippines market - Vietnam's largest rice consuming country, recently the Government of this country decided to maintain the rice import tax at 35%. Maintaining the policy of reducing import tax of the Philippines will be good news for Vietnam's rice exports because it will ensure the stability of the market. Besides, the forecast of the Free Farmers Federation (FFF) of the Philippines said that the country may need to import at least 3 million tons of rice next year due to an ongoing shortage when rice production is at low levels. lower than demand.

Mr. Do Ha Nam - Vice Chairman of Vietnam Food Association (VFA):

Hope the exchange rate mechanism, stable interest rate

In 2023, along with favorable prices and markets, the business community in general, food production and export in particular will face some challenges related to capital and credit room. Meanwhile, finance is the biggest difficulty for businesses, affecting those who want to expand or acquire reserves.

We see that the State Bank of Vietnam has begun to open more credit rooms, but the level is very small, leading to risks for businesses. Therefore, we expect that the exchange rate and interest rate mechanism must be stable. Because when businesses make business and production plans, they must be based on the exchange rate and when the exchange rate goes up - down suddenly, the business's calculations will no longer be accurate, leading to losses. In addition, the stability of capital is also very important, helping to ensure production orientation and the State Bank should have a mechanism to finance rice and rice enterprises.

Mai Ca