Economy in 9 months: Exports grow in difficulties

In that context, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has concretized an action plan to promptly remove difficulties and obstacles in order to mobilize all resources for development.

Proactively adapt

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, in the first 15 days of September 2022, the country's export turnover reached 12.75 billion USD. Thus, from the beginning of the year to September 15, the country's export turnover reached 265.34 billion USD, up 17.82% over the same period last year, equivalent to an increase in turnover of more than 40 billion USD.

Commenting on export growth continuing to reach double digits, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) pointed out the biggest favorable factor to help import and export activities achieve that achievement. is the early reopening of economic activities from the fourth quarter of 2021; in which, the manufacturing and service industries have taken advantage of meeting the requirements of the world market to boost exports.

In addition, the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have contributed to helping businesses have more favorable export markets.

Moreover, although inflation also tightens consumer demand in many markets, Vietnam's trade surplus is a very good factor to contribute to stabilizing the macro-economy as well as creating a motivation to boost business activities. import and export activities in the last months of the year.

However, according to experts, the fluctuating exchange rate certainly affects the activities of import-export enterprises. For countries that are strongly depreciating their local currencies under the pressure of the US dollar, the prices of these countries' goods will be much cheaper than imported goods.

According to Mr. Le Quoc Phuong, Former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade), Vietnam's economy has also begun to recover because the Government has recovery programs and gives priority to export industries. Exports and businesses also started to operate again.

However, along with the advantages, exports also face difficulties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which greatly affects prices and costs, disrupting the supply chain. Along with the increase of energy prices, the price of raw materials increased very sharply.

In addition, China's strict implementation of the "Zero COVID" policy not only affects the Chinese economy, but also the world economy.

These two events and many other factors have pushed inflation of countries up very high, such as in the US and EU up to nearly 10% - the highest level in more than 40 years.

High inflation forced many countries to use the tool to raise the basic interest rate to control inflation. These things have pushed economies to the risk of recession and the immediate impact is to reduce consumption is the cause. causing orders for Vietnam to decrease.

Sharing about the decrease in export orders to the US, Mr. Vuong Duc Anh, Chief of Office of the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), said that due to the high inflation rate, the US economy is expected to grow. slow in the third and fourth quarter of 2022, so the demand for fashion shopping decreases. Orders forecast in the coming months may decrease due to high inventory ratio of this market.

At the same time, the complicated developments of the Russia-Ukraine conflict cause the prices of raw materials and accessories to continuously increase, which is eroding the profits and resilience of businesses.

The current difficulties that many enterprises, especially textile and garment and footwear enterprises, face from local labor shortages, high freight rates, create more difficulties for import and export activities...

Notably, orders in November and December 2022 are not clear, but the profit of the third quarter of the garment industry is forecast to decrease by 25-30% compared to the second quarter.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), inflation and the rising dollar are weighing heavily on the ability to consume seafood in markets, especially large markets such as the US and EU. Chinese, English…

Along with difficulties in raw materials, exchange rates, and inflation, Vietnam's seafood exports in the last months of the year cannot maintain high growth as in the first half of the year.

However, seafood is still optimistic about the number of seafood exports over 10 billion USD for 2022, when the whole industry has earned nearly 6.7 billion USD in the past 7 months.

Central solution

Assessing the situation in the last months of this year, a representative of Vinatex said that the price index of imported raw materials increased by 11.2%, the value of industrial production only increased by 4.5%; profit margins of manufacturing enterprises were significantly eroded.

Along with that, there is a very high risk of extending, delaying or canceling orders even though they have been signed due to unfavorable economic developments in major markets, high inflation leading to consumers saving their spending.

In order to make effective use of trade promotion solutions towards sustainable exports, experts say that businesses need to improve their initiative in seeking information, policy mechanisms, and market research. , appraise partners or coordinate with trade promotion organizations to develop plans and participate in implementation.

Experts also forecast that this year's export opportunities will be accompanied by challenges because inflation and recession remain uncertain, especially in Europe and the United States.

Moreover, the length of the difficulty depends on the geopolitical fluctuations in many countries as well as the correctness in the management of monetary policy of the United States and European countries, including Vietnam. .

According to Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, with the current growth rate, it is likely that the total import-export turnover of the whole year 2022 will reach over 700 billion USD. The trade balance can maintain a trade surplus and import and export will exceed the target set by the National Assembly and the Government of 7-8%.

However, this result may be influenced by many factors, especially in the current context where challenges and risks still exist and may affect the market.

In particular, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended, which can disrupt the supply chain and the downturn of some markets also affects demand and affects the import of Vietnamese goods into other countries. this market.

At this time, the growth rate of many industries; In which, there is a pretty good textile industry. The textile and garment industry is also expected to have breakthroughs and achieve an export turnover of about 45 billion USD this year.

However, in reality, with the possibility of recession and inflation in some markets, textiles and consumer goods in general are a group of goods that can be subject to tightening spending as well as reducing demand. Currently, this is a big challenge for the textile industry in particular and for many other industries.

In addition, businesses are also facing many other risk factors, such as market problems, epidemics, supply chain disruptions in the market, which can easily have unexpected impacts, affecting turnover. import and export business.

Faced with these difficulties, state management agencies are still very active in supporting businesses in general in various industries. For example, removing difficulties for exporting agricultural products across the Chinese border; Open market; Food quality and safety…

In particular, recently, two products, durian and passion fruit, have been accepted for official export by China. Other commodities such as rice, seafood, coffee, pepper... also maintained a good growth rate.

According to Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Thang Hai, the Ministry of Industry and Trade determined that in the last months of the year, it will focus on boosting exports and promoting production development through supporting businesses in market information and export promotion. , taking advantage of commitments in signed FTAs.

Besides, through global value chains to find new markets; encourage businesses to innovate and create new products...

From an enterprise perspective, it is necessary to strictly and fully comply with the State's regulations and policies, and the instructions of the ministries and branches in the organization of production, business and import-export activities, ensuring traceability. origin, regulatory process, requirements and conditions of foreign markets.

Deputy Minister Do Thang Hai affirmed that the last months of the year will focus on supporting businesses in finding alternative sources of raw materials at reasonable prices to ensure enough raw materials, fuel and materials for production. and consumption…preparing for the year-end shopping season; focus on supporting enterprises to make good use of signed FTAs to speed up production and export.

In particular, the facilitation of administrative procedures for businesses should be further promoted through the application of digitalization in handling procedures, typically in tax refund procedures, export customs clearance procedures, etc. Import, issue Certificate of Origin (C/O).

+ OTHER POST:

• SSI Research: The textile industry is in trouble until the first half of 2023(19.10.2022)
• Is 100% pangasius export growth in September 2022 an optimistic sign?(19.10.2022)
• The "key" of exporting Vietnamese rice to the Nordic market(09.06.2022)
• The Chinese market increases imports of processed fruits and vegetables from Vietnam(09.06.2022)
• Rice exports will continue to keep prices high in June(09.06.2022)
• The Chinese market reduces cashew nut imports from Vietnam(09.06.2022)