Vietnam's export rice prices this week rose to a three-and-a-half month high on steady demand and rising transportation costs. This has made some traders reluctant to sign new contracts.

Vietnam's 5% broken rice was offered for sale at $415-420/ton on March 17, compared with $410-415 a week ago.

"Demand is steady, but merchants are hesitant to sign new contracts amid rising shipping costs," said a trader in Ho Chi Minh City.

According to this trader, the cost of shipping abroad has increased significantly since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia crisis.

Meanwhile, another trader said: "We are hearing news that the Philippines may soon lift import restrictions on Vietnamese rice."

The Philippines, Vietnam's largest rice importer, issued a temporary restriction on grain imports from Vietnam in November last year, amid bountiful domestic crops.
The price of Thai 5% broken rice fell slightly to 410-428 USD/ton from 415-428 USD/ton last week and also the highest level since the end of June 2021.

“The baht has weakened and domestic rice prices will fall next week due to new additional supplies,” a trader said.

In Thailand, demand for low-quality rice from domestic feed mills remains high, traders said, as these companies want to use more rice in feed mixes amid the backdrop wheat and corn prices rise.

Meanwhile, the demand for low-quality rice from abroad is almost nonexistent, except for export activities to Iraq.

The price of 5% broken rice in India, the world's top rice exporter, was reported at $371-378 per tonne, unchanged from last week, driven by demand for feed ingredients. is still high.

An exporter based in the city of Kakinada in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh (India), said: "Broken rice is being hunted. Feed manufacturers are replacing corn with 25% broken rice. and 100% broken rice.”

In neighboring Bangladesh, domestic rice prices rebounded this week despite a positive crop outlook and well-maintained stockpiles, traders said.

US agricultural market

Prices of agricultural commodities on the Chicago Board of Trade (USA) all dropped in the session on March 18, led by wheat.

Specifically, at the end of this session, the price of corn for May delivery in May 2022 decreased by 12.75 US cents (1.69%) to 7.4175 USD/bushel. Wheat for May delivery in May 2022 fell 34.25 US cents, (3.12%) to 10,6375 USD/bushel.

Meanwhile, the price of soybeans for May delivery in May 2022 also fell 0.5 US cents (0.03%), to 16.68 USD/bushel (1 bushel of wheat/soybean = 27.2 kg; 1 bushel of corn = 25.4 kg).

Traders are hesitant to sign new contracts, partly because they are concerned about the near-uncontrollable volatility around the Black Sea region during the last two days of the week.

Chicago-based research firm AgResource believes that price volatility will be exacerbated by the desire to stop observing the market.

In addition to the geopolitical effects, weather factors also play a decisive role. Global stocks of grains and oilseeds will be lower if the Northern Hemisphere fails to hit record production this summer.

In addition, the quality of crops in South America during the period from December to February is also very important.

The volatile trade in agricultural markets comes at a time when the US Department of Agriculture will release planting plans and food stockpiles data on March 1.

However, the biggest risk to the global grain supply and demand balance in the long term is whether exports in the Black Sea region will resume in the second half of 2022.

World coffee market

At the end of the last session of the week, Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Europe-London exchange reversed to increase.
Spot price in May 2022 increased by 28 USD, to 2,167 USD/ton and price delivered in July 2022 increased by 23 USD, to 2,136 USD/ton. These are very significant gains, while trading volume remains very low below average.

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US-New York floor has an upward trend. Spot price in May 2022 increased by 3.95 US cents, to 220.05 cents/lb and price delivered in July 2022 increased by 3.65 cents, to 219.65 cents/lb, are all good increases. strong with above average trading volume. (1 lb = 0.4535 kg).

The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 400-500 dong, to range from 41,000 to 41,600 dong/kg.

Coffee prices benefited when speculative capital inflows returned and gold prices continued to fall on rumors that Russia would release its gold reserves to save the ruble's rate from plunging due to Western sanctions.

However, according to a consultant from Rabobank, the coffee market will soon come under pressure when reports show that inventories at the ICE US-New York exchange have exceeded psychological thresholds and coffee producing countries. The main Robusta like Brazil and Indonesia began to enter the new harvest this year.

Meanwhile, the possibility that the average price in London will fall below 1900 USD/ton is not ruled out due to the decrease in consumption due to the COVID-19 epidemic and geopolitical tensions.

According to VNA