Textile export scenario in 2022

The epidemic situation is still very complicated and unpredictable, so next year's textile and garment exports may be equal to or "slightly" better than 2021.

Mr. Vu Duc Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (Vitas), commented that 2021 is a challenging year for the textile and garment industry when facing the pressure of rising costs and disruption of the production supply chain. , the labor deficit and the pressure of the pandemic.

Under a lot of pressure, but Mr. Giang said, textile and garment export turnover in 2021 still reached 39 billion USD, up 12% compared to 2020 and up 0.3% compared to 2019. "This can be seen as a great effort. of Vietnam's textile and garment industry in the context that the recovery rate of the world economy tends to slow down," he commented.

Mr. Truong Van Cam, Vice President of Vitas, said that it is a positive signal that major markets such as the US, EU, Japan... have reopened, and especially Vietnam has changed its policy from "zero Covid--" 19" to adapt safely, flexibly, and effectively control the Covid-19 epidemic.

This association offers three scenarios for textile exports in the following year. Scenario 1 , if the epidemic situation is basically controlled in the first quarter, export turnover will be 42.5 - 43.5 billion USD.

Scenario 2 , textile and garment export turnover will reach 40-41 billion USD if the epidemic situation is controlled in the second quarter.

Scenario 3 , if the epidemic is still complicated and lasts until the end of 2022, export turnover will reach the lowest level of 38-39 billion USD.

Meanwhile, with a more basic calculation, Mr. Le Tien Truong, Chairman of the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) forecast that textile and garment exports in 2022 will fluctuate between 36-40 billion USD, corresponding to the low scenarios. medium and high. This calculation of Mr. Truong is based on the rate of employees returning to work 60-80% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of next year.

Produced at Dony Garment Company (HCMC). Photo: Quynh Tran

Regardless of the forecast data, Mr. Truong Van Cam said that in order to achieve these scenarios, vaccines are still "key" for the textile industry to recover and grow next year.

In order to support businesses to develop sustainably, especially in the context of complicated epidemics, this association recommends continuing to implement the vaccine strategy as a fundamental solution for businesses to recover and develop in these conditions. new normal". "It is necessary to introduce the regulation of injecting 2 doses as a condition for participating in production and business activities and injecting the 3rd dose for employees", suggested Vitas Vice President.

Fiscal and monetary policies to support business recovery and development, according to Mr. Cam, should be expanded with more accessible conditions and applied within 2-3 years.

The Government also needs to soon approve the development strategy of the textile, garment and footwear industry until 2030, with a vision to 2035, so that the industry can be self-sufficient in raw materials, meet the principles of origin of FTAs, and apply technology to the industry. manufacture...

"Textiles and garments urgently need a master planning strategy so that Vietnamese textile enterprises can export textiles and garments with their own brands," he stated.

Meanwhile, Dr. Vu Thanh Tu Anh, Research Director of the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program in Ho Chi Minh City, noted the structural change of the global supply chain in 2022 with the textile industry.

According to him, during the epidemic, intra-regional trade is less affected than multi-regional trade, so many global corporations are focusing on digitization and the flexibility and sustainability of the supply chain. Citing survey data, Mr. Tu Anh said that 93% plan to increase flexibility throughout the supply chain. 90% plan to increase internal digital experts for supply chain management and 54% expect to change supply chain management activities after the pandemic.

Along with that, the trend of digital transformation, innovation and data will be stronger in the coming time. "Covid-19 makes the barriers to digital transformation overcome and digital transformation is a must if you want to survive and develop, not a trend as before," he stated. This trend, Mr. Tu Anh said, textile enterprises need to grasp if they want to "go on a sustainable path".

Along with that is the acceleration of commerce and e-services. Over the past 2.5 years, Vietnam's e-commerce growth has doubled, so if textile and garment enterprises take advantage of this, they will grow, otherwise, they will lag behind.

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