Will balance the trade balance at the end of the year

Trade deficit gradually decreases

The report of the Ministry of Industry and Trade to the Government indicated that by the end of the third quarter, the country's trade balance was estimated to have a trade deficit of 2.13 billion USD, equal to 0.9% of export turnover.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade explained that the recent trade deficit was caused by an increase in world prices, so the import price of input materials for production increased sharply (the average price of imported gasoline in 9 months increased by 40.4%). ; plastic materials increased by 35.5%; ores and minerals increased by 71%...). Meanwhile, our country still has to import a lot to serve production.

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In addition, the complicated epidemic situation has caused a sharp increase in international transportation costs. While the import value includes transportation costs, the export value usually records the FOB price. Therefore, the sharp increase in freight charges has made the import value increase more strongly.

In addition, imports of raw materials for the textile and garment industry, footwear, foodstuffs, and industrial products increased due to enterprises' plans to expand production and purchase raw materials when the partner market was still active. positive signs in economic recovery and trade activities.

Although the current trade balance is still positive, the situation will depend heavily on the results of epidemic prevention and control. Over the past time, the Government and the Prime Minister have paid great attention to promoting sustainable export growth and the trade balance issue. Right at the end of June, the Government issued Resolution No. 63/NQ-CP on the main tasks and solutions to promote economic growth in the last months of 2021 and early 2022 to ministries, branches and localities. implementation together. The Ministry of Industry and Trade affirmed that it will closely monitor import and export activities, including the trade balance issue.

Opportunities in the last quarter of the year

Currently, with very positive signals from the city. In Ho Chi Minh City and the southern provinces, the National Steering Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control affirmed that "Vietnam has well controlled the epidemic situation nationwide". On October 11, the Government issued Resolution No. 128 - Provisional regulations "safely adapting, flexibly, effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic". All these favorable conditions, along with the efforts of the business community in the last months of the year, with a good sign when the economy had a trade surplus in September - many experts commented on the ability to balance trade balance, even having a trade surplus in the whole year of 2021.

“In general, for the whole 9 months, we have a trade deficit of 2.13 billion USD, if compared with import turnover, it is equivalent to 0.8%. This is not a huge gap, and we still have 3 months of the fourth quarter. Therefore, if there is no big change in disease control, we also hope that the last 3 months of the year will be. is the time when businesses, especially those in the South region, regain their recovery and growth momentum, then it is completely safe to believe that by the end of 2021, the trade balance can be balanced, and the situation is more optimistic, it is still possible to have a trade surplus at a certain rate," said Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade affirmed that it is and continues to implement many solutions to support businesses and promote exports. However, the fundamental solution to reduce the trade balance deficit and move towards a trade surplus in the near future is to quickly restore production and boost exports. An important condition is that ministries, branches and localities need to focus on epidemic control, combined with focusing on measures to remove difficulties for production and circulation of goods.